Evidence For Revolution

In the 1973 movie classic “Sleeper,” Woody Allen plays a New York health food store owner who wakes up 200 years in the future, in a desolate environment.

“What happened to New York?” he asks the character played by Diane Keaton.  She replies, “It was destroyed.  Some guy named Al Shanker got hold of a nuclear weapon.”

I think every member of the American Federation of Teachers knows this line.  Firebrand educator Al Shanker, founder of the AFT, would never have hurt anyone.  But short of that, he would do whatever it took to fight for teachers’ rights, and most importantly, for the rights of students to receive a great education.  In fact, he saw that the only way for teachers to receive the respect, fair treatment, and adequate compensation they deserved, and still deserve, was to demonstrate that they had skills not possessed by the general public that could have powerful impacts on students’ learning.  Physicians are much respected and well paid because they have special knowledge of how to prevent and cure disease, and to do this they have available a vast armamentarium of drugs, devices, and procedures, all proven to work in rigorous research.

Shanker was a huge fan of evidence in education, first because evidence-based practice helps students succeed, but also because teachers using proven programs and practices show that they deserve respect and fair compensation because they have specialized knowledge backed by proven methods able to ensure the success of students.

The Revolutionary Potential of Evidence in Education

The reality is that in most school districts, especially large ones, most power resides in the central office, not in individual schools.  The district chooses textbooks, computer technology, benchmark assessments, and much more.  There are probably principals and teachers on the committees that make these decisions, but once the decisions are made, the building-level staff is supposed to fall in line and do as they are told.  When I speak to principals and teachers, they are astonished to learn that they can easily look up on www.evidenceforessa.org just about any program their district is using and find out what the evidence base for that program is.  Most of the time, the programs they have been required to use by their school administrations either have no valid evidence of effectiveness, or they have concrete evidence that they do not work.  Further, in almost all categories, effective programs or approaches do exist, and could have been selected as practical alternatives to the ones that were adopted.  Individual schools could have been allowed to choose proven programs, instead of being required to use programs they know not to be proven effective.

Perhaps schools should always be given the freedom to select and implement programs other than those mandated by the district, as long as the programs they want to implement have stronger evidence of effectiveness than the district’s programs.

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How the Revolution Might Happen

Imagine that principals, teachers, parent activists, enlightened school board members, and others in a given district were all encouraged to use Evidence for ESSA or other reviews of evaluations of educational programs.  Imagine that many of these people just wrote letters to the editor, or letters to district leaders, letters to education reporters, or perhaps, if these are not sufficient, they might march on the district offices with placards reading something like “Use What Works” or “Our Children Deserve Proven Programs.”  Who could be against that?

One of three things might happen.  First, the district might allow individual schools to use proven programs in place of the standard programs, and encourage any school to come forward with evidence from a reliable source if its staff or leadership wants to use a proven program not already in use.  That would be a great outcome.  Second, the district leadership might start using proven programs districtwide, and working with school leaders and teachers to ensure successful implementation.  This retains the top-down structure, but it could greatly improve student outcomes.  Third, the district might ignore the protesters and the evidence, or relegate the issue to a very slow study committee, which may be the same thing.  That would be a distressing outcome, though no worse than what probably happens now in most places.  It could still be the start of a positive process, if principals, teachers, school board members, and parent activists keep up the pressure, helpfully informing the district leaders about proven programs they could select when they are considering a change.

If this process took place around the country, it could have a substantial positive impact beyond the individual districts involved, because it could scare the bejabbers out of publishers, who would immediately see that if they are going to succeed in the long run, they need to design programs that will likely work in rigorous evaluations, and then market them based on real evidence.  That would be revolutionary indeed.  Until the publishers get firmly on board, the evidence movement is just tapping at the foundations of a giant fortress with a few ball peen hammers.  But there will come a day when that fortress will fall, and all will be beautiful. It will not require a nuclear weapon, just a lot of committed and courageous educators and advocates, with a lot of persistence, a lot of information on what works in education, and a lot of ball peen hammers.

Picture Credit: Liberty Leading the People, Eugène Delacroix [Public domain]

 This blog was developed with support from the Laura and John Arnold Foundation. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of the Foundation.

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Charter Schools? Smarter Schools? Why Not Both?

I recently saw an editorial in the May 29 Washington Post, entitled “Denying Poor Children a Chance,” a pro-charter school opinion piece that makes dire predictions about the damage to poor and minority students that would follow if charter expansion were to be limited.  In education, it is common to see evidence-free opinions for and against charter schools, so I was glad to see actual data in the Post editorial.   In my view, if charter schools could routinely and substantially improve student outcomes, especially for disadvantaged students, I’d be a big fan.  My response to charter schools is the same as my response to everything else in education: Show me the evidence.

The Washington Post editorial cited a widely known 2015 Stanford CREDO study comparing urban charter schools to matched traditional public schools (TPS) in the same districts.  Evidence always attracts my attention, so I decided to look into this and other large, multi-district studies. Despite the Post’s enthusiasm for the data, the average effect size was only +0.055 for math and +0.04 for reading.  By anyone’s standards, these are very, very small outcomes.  Outcomes for poor, urban, African American students were somewhat higher, at +0.08 for math and +0.06 for reading, but on the other hand, average effect sizes for White students were negative, averaging -0.05 for math and -0.02 for reading.  Outcomes were also negative for Native American students: -0.10 for math, zero for reading.  With effect sizes so low, these small differences are probably just different flavors of zero.  A CREDO (2013) study of charter schools in 27 states, including non-urban as well as urban schools, found average effect sizes of +0.01 for math and -0.01 for reading. How much smaller can you get?

In fact, the CREDO studies have been widely criticized for using techniques that inflate test scores in charter schools.  They compare students in charter schools to students in traditional public schools, matching on pretests and ethnicity.  This ignores the obvious fact that students in charter schools chose to go there, or their parents chose for them to go.  There is every reason to believe that students who choose to attend charter schools are, on average, higher-achieving, more highly motivated, and better behaved than students who stay in traditional public schools.  Gleason et al. (2010) found that students who applied to charter schools started off 16 percentage points higher in reading and 13 percentage points higher in math than others in the same schools who did not apply.  Applicants were more likely to be White and less likely to be African American or Hispanic, and they were less likely to qualify for free lunch.  Self-selection is a particular problem in studies of students who choose or are sent to “no-excuses” charters, such as KIPP or Success Academies, because the students or their parents know students will be held to very high standards of behavior and accomplishment, and may be encouraged to leave the school if they do not meet those standards (this is not a criticism of KIPP or Success Academies, but when such charter systems use lotteries to select students, the students who show up for the lotteries were at least motivated to participate in a lottery to attend a very demanding school).

Well-designed studies of charter schools usually focus on schools that use lotteries to select students, and then they compare the students who were successful in the lottery to those who were not so lucky.  This eliminates the self-selection problem, as students were selected by a random process.  The CREDO studies do not do this, and this may be why their studies report higher (though still very small) effect sizes than those reported by syntheses of studies of students who all applied to charters, but may have been “lotteried in” or “lotteried out” at random.  A very rigorous WWC synthesis of such studies by Gleason et al. (2010) found that middle school students who were lotteried into charter schools in 32 states performed non-significantly worse than those lotteried out, in math (ES=-0.06) and in reading (ES=-0.08).  A 2015 update of the WWC study found very similar, slightly negative outcomes in reading and math.

It is important to note that “no-excuses” charter schools, mentioned earlier, have had more positive outcomes than other charters.  A recent review of lottery studies by Cheng et al. (2017) found effect sizes of +0.25 for math and +0.17 for reading.  However, such “no-excuses” charters are a tiny percentage of all charters nationwide.

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Other meta-analyses of studies of achievement outcomes of charter schools also exist, but none found effect sizes as high as the CREDO urban study.  The means of +0.055 for math and +0.04 for reading represent upper bounds for effects of urban charter schools.

Charter Schools or Smarter Schools?

So far, every study of achievement effects of charters has focused on impacts of charters on achievement compared to those of traditional public schools.  However, this should not be the only question.  “Charters” and “non-charters” do not exhaust the range of possibilities.

What if we instead ask this question: Among the range of programs available, which are most likely to be most effective at scale?

To illustrate the importance of this question, consider a study in England, which evaluated a program called Engaging Parents Through Mobile Phones.  The program involves texting parents on cell phones to alert them to upcoming tests, inform them about whether students are completing their homework, and tell them what students were being taught in school.  A randomized evaluation (Miller et al, 2017) found effect sizes of +0.06 for math and +0.03 for reading, remarkably similar to the urban charter school effects reported by CREDO (2015).  The cost of the mobile phone program was £6 per student per year, or $7.80.  If you like the outcomes of charter schools, might you prefer to get the same outcomes for $7.80 per child per year, without all the political, legal, and financial stresses of charter schools?

The point here is that rather than arguing about the size of small charter effects, one could consider charters a “treatment” and compare them to other proven approaches.  In our Evidence for ESSA website, we list 112 reading and math programs that meet ESSA standards for “Strong,” “Moderate,” or “Promising” evidence of effectiveness.  Of these, 107 had effect sizes larger than those CREDO (2015) reports for urban charter schools.  In both math and reading, there are many programs with average effect sizes of +0.20, +0.30, up to more than +0.60.  If applied as they were in the research, the best of these programs could, for example, entirely overcome Black-White and Hispanic-White achievement gaps in one or two years.

A few charter school networks have their own proven educational approaches, but the many charters that do not have proven programs should be looking for them.  Most proven programs work just as well in charter schools as they do in traditional public schools, so there is no reason existing charter schools should not proactively seek proven programs to increase their outcomes.  For new charters, wouldn’t it make sense for chartering agencies to encourage charter applicants to systematically search for and propose to adopt programs that have strong evidence of effectiveness?  Many charter schools already use proven programs.  In fact, there are several that specifically became charters to enable them to adopt or maintain our Success for All whole-school reform program.

There is no reason for any conflict between charter schools and smarter schools.  The goal of every school, regardless of its governance, should be to help students achieve their full potential, and every leader of a charter or non-charter school would agree with this. Whatever we think about governance, all schools, traditional or charter, should get smarter, using proven programs of all sorts to improve student outcomes.

References

Cheng, A., Hitt, C., Kisida, B., & Mills, J. N. (2017). “No excuses” charter schools: A meta-analysis of the experimental evidence on student achievement. Journal of School Choice, 11 (2), 209-238.

Clark, M.A., Gleason, P. M., Tuttle, C. C., & Silverberg, M. K., (2015). Do charter schools improve student achievement? Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 37 (4), 419-436.

Gleason, P.M., Clark, M. A., Tuttle, C. C., & Dwoyer, E. (2010).The evaluation of charter school impacts. Washington, DC: What Works Clearinghouse.

Miller, S., Davison, J, Yohanis, J., Sloan, S., Gildea, A., & Thurston, A. (2016). Texting parents: Evaluation report and executive summary. London: Education Endowment Foundation.

Washington Post: Denying poor children a chance. [Editorial]. (May 29, 2019). The Washington Post, A16.

This blog was developed with support from the Laura and John Arnold Foundation. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of the Foundation.

Send Us Your Evaluations!

In last week’s blog, I wrote about reasons that many educational leaders are wary of the ESSA evidence standards, and the evidence-based reform movement more broadly. Chief among these concerns was a complaint that few educational leaders had the training in education research methods to evaluate the validity of educational evaluations. My response to this was to note that it should not be necessary for educational leaders to read and assess individual evaluations of educational programs, because free, easy-to-interpret review websites, such as the What Works Clearinghouse and Evidence for ESSA, already do such reviews. Our Evidence for ESSA website (www.evidenceforessa.org) lists reading and math programs available for use anywhere in the U.S., and we are constantly on the lookout for any we might have missed. If we have done our job well, you should be able to evaluate the evidence base for any program, in perhaps five minutes.

Other evidence-based fields rely on evidence reviews. Why not education? Your physician may or may not know about medical research, but most rely on websites that summarize the evidence. Farmers may be outstanding in their fields, but they rely on evidence summaries. When you want to know about the safety and reliability of cars you might buy, you consult Consumer Reports. Do you understand exactly how they get their ratings? Neither do I, but I trust their expertise. Why should this not be the same for educational programs?

At Evidence for ESSA, we are aiming to provide information on every program available to you, if you are a school or district leader. At the moment, we cover reading and mathematics, grades pre-k to 12. We want to be sure that if a sales rep or other disseminator offers you a program, you can look it up on Evidence for ESSA and it will be there. If there are no studies of the program that meet our standards, we will say so. If there are qualifying studies that either do or do not have evidence of positive outcomes that meet ESSA evidence standards, we will say so. On our website, there is a white box on the homepage. If you type in the name of any reading or math program, the website should show you what we have been able to find out.

What we do not want to happen is that you type in a program title and find nothing. In our website, “nothing” has no useful meaning. We have worked hard to find every program anyone has heard of, and we have found hundreds. But if you know of any reading or math program that does not appear when you type in its name, please tell us. If you have studies of that program that might meet our inclusion criteria, please send them to us, or citations to them. We know that there are always additional programs entering use, and additional research on existing programs.

Why is this so important to us? The answer is simple, Evidence for ESSA exists because we believe it is essential for the progress of evidence-based reform for educators and policy makers to be confident that they can easily find the evidence on any program, not just the most widely used. Our vision is that someday, it will be routine for educators thinking of adopting educational programs to quickly consult Evidence for ESSA (or other reviews) to find out what has been proven to work, and what has not. I heard about a superintendent who, before meeting with any sales rep, asked them to show her the evidence for the effectiveness of their program on Evidence for ESSA or the What Works Clearinghouse. If they had it, “Come on in,” she’d say. If not, “Maybe later.”

Only when most superintendents and other school officials do this will program publishers and other providers know that it is worth their while to have high-quality evaluations done of each of their programs. Further, they will find it worthwhile to invest in the development of programs likely to work in rigorous evaluations, to provide enough quality professional development to give their programs a chance to succeed, and to insist that schools that adopt their proven programs incorporate the methods, materials, and professional development that their own research has told them are needed for success. Insisting on high-quality PD, for example, adds cost to a program, and providers may worry that demanding sufficient PD will price them out of the market. But if all programs are judged on their proven outcomes, they all will require adequate PD, to be sure that the programs will work when evaluated. That is how evidence will transform educational practice and outcomes.

So our attempt to find and fairly evaluate every program in existence is not due to our being nerds or obsessive compulsive neurotics (though these may be true, too). But thorough, rigorous review of the whole body of evidence in every subject and grade level, and for attendance, social emotional learning, and other non-academic outcomes, is part of a plan.

You can help us on this part of our plan. Tell us about anything we have missed, or any mistakes we have made. You will be making an important contribution to the progress of our profession, and to the success of all children.

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Send us your evaluations!
Photo credit: George Grantham Bain Collection, Library of Congress [Public domain]

This blog was developed with support from the Laura and John Arnold Foundation. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of the Foundation.

Why Do Some Educators Push Back Against Evidence?

In December, 2015, the U.S. Congress passed the Every Student Succeeds Act, or ESSA. Among many other provisions, ESSA defined levels of evidence supporting educational programs: Strong (at least one randomized experiment with positive outcomes), moderate (at least one quasi-experimental study with positive outcomes), and promising (at least one correlational study with positive outcomes). For various forms of federal funding, schools are required (in school improvement) or encouraged (in seven other funding streams) to use programs falling into one of these top three categories. There is also a fourth category, “demonstrates a rationale,” but this one has few practical consequences.

3 ½  years later, the ESSA evidence standards are increasing interest in evidence of effectiveness for educational programs, especially among schools applying for school improvement funding and in state departments of education, which are responsible for managing the school improvement grant process. All of this is to the good, in my view.

On the other hand, evidence is not yet transforming educational practice. Even in portions of ESSA that encourage or require use of proven programs among schools seeking federal funding, schools and districts often try to find ways around the evidence requirements rather than truly embracing them. Even when schools do say they used evidence in their proposals, they may have just accepted assurances from publishers or developers stating that their programs meet ESSA standards, even when this is clearly not so.

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Why are these children in India pushing back on a car?  And why do many educators in our country push back on evidence?

Educators care a great deal about their children’s achievement, and they work hard to ensure their success. Implementing proven, effective programs does not guarantee success, but it greatly increases the chances. So why has evidence of effectiveness played such a limited role in program selection and implementation, even when ESSA, the national education law, defines evidence and requires use of proven programs under certain circumstances?

The Center on Education Policy Report

Not long ago, the Center on Education Policy (CEP) at George Washington University published a report of telephone interviews of state leaders in seven states. The interviews focused on problems states and districts were having with implementation of the ESSA evidence standards. Six themes emerged:

  1. Educational leaders are not comfortable with educational research methods.
  2. State leaders feel overwhelmed serving large numbers of schools qualifying for school improvement.
  3. Districts have to seriously re-evaluate longstanding relationships with vendors of education products.
  4. State and district staff are confused about the prohibition on using Title I school improvement funds on “Tier 4” programs (ones that demonstrate a rationale, but have not been successfully evaluated in a rigorous study).
  5. Some state officials complained that the U.S. Department of Education had not been sufficiently helpful with implementation of ESSA evidence standards.
  6. State leaders had suggestions to make education research more accessible to educators.

What is the Reality?

I’m sure that the concerns expressed by the state and district leaders in the CEP report are sincerely felt. But most of them raise issues that have already been solved at the federal, state, and/or district levels. If these concerns are as widespread as they appear to be, then we have serious problems of communication.

  1. The first theme in the CEP report is one I hear all the time. I find it astonishing, in light of the reality.

No educator needs to be a research expert to find evidence of effectiveness for educational programs. The federal What Works Clearinghouse (https://ies.ed.gov/ncee/wwc/) and our Evidence for ESSA (www.evidenceforessa.org) provide free information on the outcomes of programs, at least in reading and mathematics, that is easy to understand and interpret. Evidence for ESSA provides information on programs that do meet ESSA standards as well as those that do not. We are constantly scouring the literature for studies of replicable programs, and when asked, we review entire state and district lists of adopted programs and textbooks, at no cost. The What Works Clearinghouse is not as up-to-date and has little information on programs lacking positive findings, but it also provides easily interpreted information on what works in education.

In fact, few educational leaders anywhere are evaluating the effectiveness of individual programs by reading research reports one at a time. The What Works Clearinghouse and Evidence for ESSA employ experts who know how to find and evaluate outcomes of valid research and to describe the findings clearly. Why would every state and district re-do this job for themselves? It would be like having every state do its own version of Consumer Reports, or its own reviews of medical treatments. It just makes no sense. In fact, at least in the case of Evidence for ESSA, we know that more than 80,000 unique readers have used Evidence for ESSA since it launched in 2017. I’m sure even larger numbers have used the What Works Clearinghouse and other reviews. The State of Ohio took our entire Evidence for ESSA website and put it on its own state servers with some other information. Several other states have strongly promoted the site. The bottom line is that educational leaders do not have to be research mavens to know what works, and tens of thousands of them know where to find fair and useful information.

  1. State leaders are overwhelmed. I’m sure this is true, but most state departments of education have long been understaffed. This problem is not unique to ESSA.
  2. Districts have to seriously re-evaluate longstanding relationships with vendors. I suspect that this concern is at the core of the problem on evidence. The fact is that most commercial programs do not have adequate evidence of effectiveness. Either they have no qualifying studies (by far the largest number), or they do have qualifying evidence that is not significantly positive. A vendor with programs that do not meet ESSA standards is not going to be a big fan of evidence, or ESSA. These are often powerful organizations with deep personal relationships with state and district leaders. When state officials adhere to a strict definition of evidence, defined in ESSA, local vendors push back hard. Understaffed state departments are poorly placed to fight with vendors and their friends in district offices, so they may be forced to accept weak or no evidence.
  3. Confusions about Tier 4 evidence. ESSA is clear that to receive certain federal funds schools must use programs with evidence in Tiers 1, 2, or 3, but not 4. The reality is that definitions of Tier 4 are so weak that any program on Earth can meet this standard. What program anywhere does not have a rationale? The problem is that districts, states, and vendors have used confusion about Tier 4 to justify any program they wish. Some states are more sophisticated than others and do not allow this, but the very existence of Tier 4 in ESSA language creates a loophole that any clever sales rep or educator can use, or at least try to get away with.
  4. The U. S. Department of Education is not helpful enough. In reality, USDoE is understaffed and overwhelmed on many fronts. In any case, ESSA puts a lot of emphasis on state autonomy, so the feds feel unwelcome in performing oversight.

The Future of Evidence in Education

Despite the serious problems in implementation of ESSA, I still think it is a giant step forward. Every successful field, such as medicine, agriculture, and technology, has started its own evidence revolution fighting entrenched interests and anxious stakeholders. As late as the 1920s, surgeons refused to wash their hands before operations, despite substantial evidence going back to the 1800s that handwashing was essential. Evidence eventually triumphs, though it often takes many years. Education is just at the beginning of its evidence revolution, and it will take many years to prevail. But I am unaware of any field that embraced evidence, only to retreat in the face of opposition. Evidence eventually prevails because it is focused on improving outcomes for people, and people vote. Sooner or later, evidence will transform the practice of education, as it has in so many other fields.

Photo credit: Roger Price from Hong Kong, Hong Kong [CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)]

This blog was developed with support from the Laura and John Arnold Foundation. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of the Foundation.

On Progress

My grandfather (pictured below with my son Ben around 1985) was born in 1900, and grew up in Argentina. The world he lived in as a child had no cars, no airplanes, few cures for common diseases, and inefficient agriculture that bound the great majority of the world to farming. By the time he died, in 1996, think of all the astonishing progress he’d seen in technology, medicine, agriculture, and much else.

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Pictured are Bob Slavin’s grandfather and son, both of whom became American citizens: one born before the invention of airplanes, the other born before the exploration of Mars.

I was born in 1950. The progress in technology, medicine, and agriculture, and many other fields, continues to be extraordinary.

In most of our society and economy, we confidently expect progress. When my father needed a heart valve, his doctor suggested that he wait as long as possible because new, much better heart valves were coming out soon. He could, and did, bet his life on progress, and it paid off.

But now consider education. My grandfather attended school in Argentina, where he was taught in rows by teachers who did most of the talking. My father went to school in New York City, where he was taught in rows by teachers who did most of the talking. I went to school in Washington, DC, where I was taught in rows by teachers who did most of the talking. My children went to school in Baltimore, where they mostly sat at tables, and did use some technology, but still, the teachers did most of the talking.

 

My grandchildren are now headed toward school (the oldest is four). They will use a lot of technology, and will sit at tables more than my own children did. But the basic structure of the classroom is not so different from Argentina, 1906. All who eagerly await the technology revolution are certainly seeing many devices in classroom use. But are these devices improving outcomes on, for example, reading and math? Our reviews of research on all types of approaches used in elementary and secondary schools are not finding strong benefits of technology. Across all subjects and grade levels, the average effect size is similar, ranging from +0.07 (elementary math) to +0.09 (elementary reading). If you like “additional months of learning,” these effects equate to one month in a year. Ok, better than zero, but not the revolution we’ve been waiting for.

There are other approaches much more effective than technology, such as tutoring, forms of cooperative learning, and classroom management strategies. At www.evidenceforessa.org, you can see descriptions and outcomes of more than 100 proven programs. But these are not widely used. Your children or grandchildren, or other children you care about, may go 13 years from kindergarten to 12th grade without ever experiencing a proven program. In our field, progress is slow, and dissemination of proven programs is slower.

Education is the linchpin for our economy and society. Everything else depends on it. In all of the developed world, education is richly funded, yet very, very little of this largesse is invested in innovation, evaluations of innovative methods, or dissemination of proven programs. Other fields have shown how innovation, evaluation, and dissemination of proven strategies can become the engine of progress. There is absolutely nothing inevitable about the slow pace of progress in education. That slow pace is a choice we have made, and keep making, year after year, generation after generation. I hope we will make a different choice in time to benefit my grandchildren, and the children of every family in the world. It could happen, and there are many improvements in educational research and development to celebrate. But how long must it take before the best of educational innovation becomes standard practice?

 This blog was developed with support from the Laura and John Arnold Foundation. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of the Foundation.

Could Proven Programs Eliminate Gaps in Elementary Reading Achievement?

What if every child in America could read at grade level or better? What if the number of students in special education for learning disabilities, or retained in grade, could be cut in half?

What if students who become behavior problems or give up on learning because of nothing more than reading difficulties could instead succeed in reading and no longer be frustrated by failure?

Today these kinds of outcomes are only pipe dreams. Despite decades of effort and billions of dollars directed toward remedial and special education, reading levels have barely increased.  Gaps between middle class and economically disadvantaged students remain wide, as do gaps between ethnic groups. We’ve done so much, you might think, and nothing has really worked at scale.

Yet today we have many solutions to the problems of struggling readers, solutions so effective that if widely and effectively implemented, they could substantially change not only the reading skills, but the life chances of students who are struggling in reading.

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How do I know this is possible? The answer is that the evidence is there for all to see.

This week, my colleagues and I released a review of research on programs for struggling readers. The review, written by Amanda Inns, Cynthia Lake, Marta Pellegrini, and myself, uses academic language and rigorous review methods. But you don’t have to be a research expert to understand what we found out. In ten minutes, just reading this blog, you will know what needs to be done to have a powerful impact on struggling readers.

Everyone knows that there are substantial gaps in student reading performance according to social class and race. According to the National Assessment of Educational Progress, or NAEP, here are key gaps in terms of effect sizes at fourth grade:

Gap in Effect Sizes
No Free/Reduced lunch/

Free/Reduced lunch

0.56
White/African American 0.52
White/Hispanic 0.46

These are big differences. In order to eliminate these gaps, we’d have to provide schools serving disadvantaged and minority students with programs or services sufficient to increase their reading scores by about a half standard deviation. Is this really possible?

Can We Really Eliminate Such Big and Longstanding Gaps?

Yes, we can. And we can do it cost-effectively.

Our review examined thousands of studies of programs intended to improve the reading performance of struggling readers. We found 59 studies of 39 different programs that met very high standards of research quality. 73% of the qualifying studies used random assignment to experimental or control groups, just as the most rigorous medical studies do. We organized the programs into response to intervention (RTI) tiers:

Tier 1 means whole-class programs, not just for struggling readers

Tier 2 means targeted services for students who are struggling to read

Tier 3 means intensive services for students who have serious difficulties.

Our categories were as follows:

Multi-Tier (Tier 1 + tutoring for students who need it)

Tier 1:

  • Whole-class programs

Tier 2:

  • Technology programs
  • One-to-small group tutoring

Tier 3:

  • One-to-one tutoring

We are not advocating for RTI itself, because the data on RTI are unclear. But it is just common sense to use proven programs with all students, then proven remedial approaches with struggling readers, then intensive services for students for whom Tier 2 is not sufficient.

Do We Have Proven Programs Able to Overcome the Gaps?

The table below shows average effect sizes for specific reading approaches. Wherever you see effect sizes that approach or exceed +0.50, you are looking at proven solutions to the gaps, or at least programs that could become a component in a schoolwide plan to ensure the success of all struggling readers.

Programs That Work for Struggling Elementary Readers

Multi-Tier Approaches Grades Proven No. of Studies Mean Effect Size
      Success for All K-5 3 +0.35
      Enhanced Core Reading Instruction 1 1 +0.24
Tier 1 – Classroom Approaches      
     Cooperative Integrated Reading                        & Composition (CIRC) 2-6 3 +0.11
      PALS 1 1 +0.65
Tier 2 – One-to-Small Group Tutoring      
      Read, Write, & Type (T 1-3) 1 1 +0.42
      Lindamood (T 1-3) 1 1 +0.65
      SHIP (T 1-3) K-3 1 +0.39
      Passport to Literacy (TA 1-4/7) 4 4 +0.15
      Quick Reads (TA 1-2) 2-3 2 +0.22
Tier 3 One-to-One Tutoring
      Reading Recovery (T) 1 3 +0.47
      Targeted Reading Intervention (T) K-1 2 +0.50
      Early Steps (T) 1 1 +0.86
      Lindamood (T) K-2 1 +0.69
      Reading Rescue (T or TA) 1 1 +0.40
      Sound Partners (TA) K-1 2 +0.43
      SMART (PV) K-1 1 +0.40
      SPARK (PV) K-2 1 +0.51

Key:    T: Certified teacher tutors

TA: Teaching assistant tutors

PV: Paid volunteers (e.g., AmeriCorps members)

1-X: For small group tutoring, the usual group size for tutoring (e.g., 1-2, 1-4)

(For more information on each program, see www.evidenceforessa.org)

The table is a road map to eliminating the achievement gaps that our schools have wrestled with for so long. It only lists programs that succeeded at a high level, relative to others at the same tier levels. See the full report or www.evidenceforessa for information on all programs.

It is important to note that there is little evidence of the effectiveness of tutoring in grades 3-5. Almost all of the evidence is from grades K-2. However, studies done in England in secondary schools have found positive effects of three reading tutoring programs in the English equivalent of U.S. grades 6-7. These findings suggest that when well-designed tutoring programs for grades 3-5 are evaluated, they will also show very positive impacts. See our review on secondary reading programs at www.bestevidence.org for information on these English middle school tutoring studies. On the same website, you can also see a review of research on elementary mathematics programs, which reports that most of the successful studies of tutoring in math took place in grades 2-5, another indicator that reading tutoring is also likely to be effective in these grades.

Some of the individual programs have shown effects large enough to overcome gaps all by themselves if they are well implemented (i.e., ES = +0.50 or more). Others have effect sizes lower than +0.50 but if combined with other programs elsewhere on the list, or if used over longer time periods, are likely to eliminate gaps. For example, one-to-one tutoring by certified teachers is very effective, but very expensive. A school might implement a Tier 1 or multi-tier approach to solve all the easy problems inexpensively, then use cost-effective one-to-small group methods for students with moderate reading problems, and only then use one-to-one tutoring with the small number of students with the greatest needs.

Schools, districts, and states should consider the availability, practicality, and cost of these solutions to arrive at a workable solution. They then need to make sure that the programs are implemented well enough and long enough to obtain the outcomes seen in the research, or to improve on them.

But the inescapable conclusion from our review is that the gaps can be closed, using proven models that already exist. That’s big news, news that demands big changes.

Photo credit: Courtesy of Allison Shelley/The Verbatim Agency for American Education: Images of Teachers and Students in Action

This blog was developed with support from the Laura and John Arnold Foundation. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of the Foundation.

Moneyball for Education

When I was a kid, growing up in the Maryland suburbs of Washington, DC, everyone I knew rooted for the hapless Washington Senators, one of the worst baseball teams ever. At that time, however, the Baltimore Orioles were one of the best teams in baseball, and every once in a while a classmate would snap. He (always “he”) would decide to become an Orioles fan. This would cause him to be shamed and ostracized for the rest of his life by all true Senators fans.

I’ve now lived in Baltimore for most of my life. I wonder if I came here in part because of my youthful impression of Baltimore as a winning franchise?

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Skipping forward in time to now, I recently saw in the New York Times an article about the collapse of the Baltimore Orioles. In 2018, they had the worst record of any team in history. Worse than even the Washington Senators ever were. Why did this happen? According to the NYT, the Orioles are one of the last teams to embrace analytics, which means using evidence to decide which players to recruit or drop, to put on the field or on the bench. Some teams have analytics departments of 15. The Orioles? Zero, although they have just started one.

It’s not as though the benefits of analytics are a secret. A 2003 book by Michael Lewis, Moneyball, explained how the underfunded Oakland As used analytics to turn themselves around. A hugely popular 2011 movie told the same story.

In case anyone missed the obvious linkage of analytics in baseball to analytics in education, Results for America (RfA), a group that promotes the use of evidence in government social programs, issued a 2015 book called, you guessed it, Moneyball for Government (Nussle & Orszag, 2015). This Moneyball focused on success stories and ideas from key thinkers and practitioners in government and education. RfA was instrumental in encouraging the U.S. Congress to include in ESSA definitions of strong, moderate, and promising evidence of effectiveness, and to specify a few areas of federal funding that require or incentivize use of proven programs.

The ESSA evidence standards are a giant leap forward in supporting the use of evidence in education. Yet, like the Baltimore Orioles, the once-admired U.S. education system has been less than swept away by the idea that using proven programs and practices could improve outcomes for children. Yes, the situation is better than it was, but things are going very slowly. I’m worried that because of this, the whole evidence movement in education will someday be dismissed: “Evidence? Yeah, we tried that. Didn’t work.”

There are still good reasons for hope. The amount of high-quality evidence continues to grow at an unprecedented pace. The ESSA evidence standards have at least encouraged federal, state, and local leaders to pay some attention to evidence, though moving to action based on this evidence is a big lift.

Perhaps I’m just impatient. It took the Baltimore Orioles a book, a movie, and 16 years to arrive at the conclusion that maybe, just maybe, it was time to use evidence, as winning teams have been doing for a long time. Education is much bigger, and its survival does not depend on its success (as baseball teams do). Education will require visionary leadership to embrace the use of evidence. But I am confident that when it does, we will be overwhelmed by visits from educators from Finland, Singapore, China, and other countries that currently clobber us in international comparisons. They’ll want to know how the U.S. education system became the best in the world. Perhaps we’ll have to write a book and a movie to explain it all.  I’d suggest we call it . . . “Learnball.”

References

Nussle, J., & Orszag, P. (2015). Moneyball for Government (2nd Ed.). Washington, DC: Disruption Books.

Photo credit: Keith Allison [CC BY-SA 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)]

This blog was developed with support from the Laura and John Arnold Foundation. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of the Foundation.